Soybean prices slid to $1,119.81 per bushel on November 21, 2025, reversing an earlier intraday spike to $1,125.69 — a move that caught traders off guard after a month-long rally fueled by China’s sudden rush to lock in U.S. supplies. The dip wasn’t due to oversupply. It was profit-taking. And it exposed a dangerous gap between what China promised and what it’s actually shipped.
China’s Buying Spree — And the Catch
Just days before the price peak, China snapped up seven U.S. soybean cargoes for December and January delivery, a move that sent physical bids soaring. The trigger? A surprise meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, which thawed a frosty trade relationship frozen by tit-for-tat tariffs since 2018. Following the summit, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent announced China had committed to buying 440 million bushels of U.S. soybeans before year-end 2025 — and another 880 million annually from 2026 to 2028. Markets erupted. Futures jumped nearly $1.50 since mid-October.But here’s the twist: by November 20, 2025, actual purchase commitments totaled just 46 million bushels — barely 10% of the target. AgWeb analyst Mike Minor confirmed the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service logged only 29 million bushels in new purchases on November 18 alone. Meanwhile, COFCO International Holdings Limited, China’s state-owned trader, quietly signed deals for over $10 million in Brazilian soybeans — no mention of U.S. beans.
The USDA Report That Changed Everything
The timing couldn’t have been more critical. On November 12, 2025, the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), cutting global soybean production by exactly 4.1 million tonnes to 421.75 million tonnes and slashing ending stocks to 121.99 million tonnes — the lowest buffer in years. The U.S. yield forecast dropped by 0.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels, matching expectations but still tightening the global supply leash.That report didn’t cause the rally — China did. But it gave traders a reason to believe the rally might last. With stocks shrinking and demand surging, the market priced in a tight year ahead. Kriss Nelson, analyst at the Iowa Soybean Association, put it bluntly: “While China reaching the U.S. interpreted commitment of 440 million bushels before year’s end is not impossible, the more difficult question to answer is how much of that total is baked into market and the current USDA balance sheet.”
From .20 to .60 — In Just One Month
One month earlier, on October 25, 2025, January 2026 soybean futures were trading near $10.20 per bushel. Farmers were resigned to another year of low returns. The Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program’s current price — $12.17, based on a five-year Olympic average — offered little comfort. Then, in less than 30 days, the market flipped. Futures flirted with $11.60, their highest since July 2024. Farmers who had hedged early were smiling. Those who waited? Watching nervously.Now, the question isn’t whether China wants soybeans. It’s whether they’ll show up. The USDA’s numbers are solid. The rhetoric is loud. But shipment data? Barely there. And that’s what matters on the dock.
What’s Next: The December Test
As of November 28, 2025, the market is holding its breath. If China delivers even half of its promised 440 million bushels by December 31, prices could rebound strongly — possibly testing $12 per bushel. But if only 100 million bushels arrive? The rally will collapse. Traders are already pricing in a 30% chance of failure.Adding to the uncertainty: the 2025 ARC program allows farmers to take the better of ARC or Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments — regardless of their spring election. That’s a lifeline, but it doesn’t pay for fuel, fertilizer, or farm loans. The real payout is in the cash price at harvest. And right now, that’s hanging on a single question: Will China move the beans?
Why This Matters Beyond the Farm Belt
This isn’t just about soybeans. It’s about the fragile thread holding U.S.-China trade together. After years of tariffs, trade wars, and broken promises, this deal is a test case. If China follows through, it could signal a new era of cooperation — and unlock billions in agribusiness deals. If it doesn’t? The U.S. will be left with a surplus it can’t sell, and farmers will pay the price.Meanwhile, Brazil is quietly stepping in. With China buying Brazilian soybeans even as it talks to the U.S., the global trade map is shifting. The U.S. can’t afford to take China’s word anymore. It needs proof — on the water, in the ports, in the bills of lading.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did soybean prices drop after China’s big purchase announcement?
The initial price surge was driven by speculation that China would rapidly ship the 440 million bushels it promised. But actual purchase commitments stood at just 46 million bushels by November 20 — 10% of the target. Traders took profits, causing the dip. Without confirmed shipments, the rally lost momentum.
How does the USDA’s WASDE report affect soybean prices?
The November 12, 2025 WASDE report cut global soybean production by 4.1 million tonnes and reduced ending stocks to 121.99 million tonnes — the lowest since 2021. Combined with a lower U.S. yield of 53 bushels per acre, this tightened supply expectations, giving traders confidence to bid prices higher — but only if demand materializes.
What’s the difference between purchase commitments and actual shipments?
Purchase commitments are contracts signed on paper. Shipments are beans loaded onto ships and leaving U.S. ports. China has a history of signing big deals and delaying or canceling shipments. Traders only trust what’s on the water — not what’s on a press release.
Why is Brazil buying soybeans from China while the U.S. is negotiating?
China is diversifying its supply. Even as it talks with the U.S., COFCO International Holdings Limited has already bought over $10 million in Brazilian soybeans. This isn’t a rejection of U.S. beans — it’s a hedge. China won’t rely on one supplier, especially after years of trade instability.
How is the ARC program helping U.S. soybean farmers right now?
For 2025 only, farmers can choose the higher payment between ARC and PLC, regardless of their spring election. With soybean prices volatile, this flexibility provides a safety net. But ARC payments are based on historical averages — $12.17 per bushel — not current market prices. So while it helps with cash flow, it doesn’t replace the need for strong export demand.
What’s the biggest risk to soybean prices in December 2025?
The biggest risk is that China fails to ship at least 150–200 million bushels by year-end. If shipments lag, traders will assume the 440-million-bushel target was political theater — not a real commitment. That could trigger a 15–20% price correction, hurting farmers who didn’t hedge and destabilizing global grain markets.